By Simon Abaho
The National Planning Authority(NPA) today met journalists at Media Center in Kampala headed by Dr. Joseph Muvawala, the Executive Director of NPA, to present the newly established model for projections.
The National Planning Authority (NPA) developed a model that makes predictions of COVID-19 infections cases every two weeks. The model has been since 2020 and has proved to be 97% accurate.
The model is not only for Uganda but can be used by any African country to make projections for their COVID cases. Dr. Muvawala said that “The model was published on Monday 28th June 2021 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) of USA can be accessed for use on www.pnas.org with DOI number 10.1073/pnas.2026664118.”
Despite current lockdown measures, new model Projections indicate a continuing rise in new cases but slightly lower than the previous week averaging 1,037 new cases per day. The model is projecting a total of 7259 new cases for the week of 27th June to 3rd July 2021 and 7214 for 4th 10th July. the internal factors are dominant contributors to the news cases in the country.
In the week of June 12th to 19th the model projected 10144 cases and the actual reported cases were 9926. In the week of June 20th to 26th the model projected 10468 news cases and the actual reported cases were 7329.
Cases to Reach Maximum Peak in Mid-July.
Dr. Muvawala said the COVIDd-19 infections are expected to reach the maximum peak in July. This thus indicates that the partial lock down that was implemented on the 6th June 2021 was not effective in terms of curbing the spread of the virus especially the because of the increased transmissibility of the new Variants and the decreased compliance with interventions. This thus implies that the full lock-down measures that were put in in place by the government were necessary in helping ti spread the virus .
This model was established as a result of the research collaboration between NPA, Science Department, and Pennsylvania State University (with funding from the National Institute of Health (NIH), USA), which is aimed at determining the causes of Neonatal mortality in Uganda
With the model predictions, the Executive Director of NPA advised that even when the levels of infection go down there should be no level of complacency among the public. The public is advised to strictly adhere to the SOPs to slow the Rising cases and the consequences on the health sector. There is also a need for increased testing more enforcement of lockdown measures as we try to vaccinate all the Ugandans as much as possible.
NPA will continue to give bi-weekly projections and trends in order to Support the ministry of Health in effective decision making.
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